After returning from Armenia, Italy Under-21s arrived back at the Olympic Preparation Centre in Tirrenia last night. Cisse’s late winner, watched by 624,000 viewers on Rai 2 with a 4.7% audience share, sent the Azzurrini into the next two days of preparation in high spirits ahead of Italy vs. Poland, their final and decisive qualifier. Victory would give Baldini’s side the chance to top the group and secure direct qualification for the European Championship. The match takes place on Monday at the Stadio Adriatico in Pescara, with kick-off at 18:15 (live on Rai 2).

FAVASULI AND FORTINI OUT, AHANOR JOINS THE SQUAD. Costantino Favasuli and Niccolò Fortini will miss the match. The Napoli and Torino full-backs underwent medical assessments and were deemed unavailable, returning to their respective clubs this afternoon.

Meanwhile, Honest Ahanor has joined up with the squad. The Crystal Palace player arrived directly from Coverciano, where he had been with the senior national team, and gives Silvio Baldini another important option. This afternoon, the coach split the squad into different training groups, with those involved against Armenia completing a recovery session in the gym and receiving treatment.

 

The Azzurrini celebrate the winning goal against Armenia
The Azzurrini celebrate the winning goal against Armenia
The Azzurrini celebrate the winning goal against Armenia

ITALY QUALIFY FOR THE EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP IF… With the Poland match approaching, the qualification picture is already clear. Monday’s game in Pescara is the final fixture in Group E and will decide who finishes top. Italy trail Poland by three points and, having lost the reverse fixture 2-1 as well as holding an inferior goal difference (+21 compared with Poland’s +24), the Azzurrini need to win by two clear goals to finish first and qualify directly. It will be a tough task against a side that have conceded just twice in nine matches.

IF THE AZZURRINI WIN BY ONE GOAL. Even if Italy do not finish top of the group, a one-goal victory would still leave them with a strong chance of reaching Albania and Serbia 2027 as the best runner-up across all the qualifying groups. If Italy were to win 1-0, Greece, their biggest rivals in that race, would need to win by at least five goals away to Northern Ireland, who have conceded only three goals at home so far.

 

Cisse in action during the reverse fixture against Poland
Cisse in action during the reverse fixture against Poland
Cisse in action during the reverse fixture against Poland

IF IT ENDS IN A DRAW. A draw would change the picture. If Greece win, and only a win would be enough, they would move ahead of Italy and Baldini’s side would have to contest the play-offs in November. If both Italy vs. Poland and Greece’s match end in draws, the Azzurrini would remain ahead. Finland could still come into contention, however, as a win away to Kosovo by at least five goals could take them above both Italy and Greece in the race to finish as the best runner-up. There is another scenario to keep an eye on in Greece’s group. If Italy fail to beat Poland and Germany draw or lose against Georgia, a Greek victory over Northern Ireland would take Greece top of their group, leaving Italy and Germany to battle it out for the best runner-up spot. A similar scenario applies to Poland. If Italy beat them by two or more goals and Greece simultaneously defeat Northern Ireland by at least three, Poland would drop into the play-offs, with Greece qualifying directly as the best runner-up.

AND IF ITALY LOSE? Italy currently sit top of the ranking of second-placed teams. If they lose to Poland, the Azzurrini would need Greece and Finland to match their result in order to still secure qualification for the European Championship.